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icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Mundo·Pandaigdigang Halalan

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Mundo·Pandaigdigang Halalan

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$483,043 Vol.

Oct 3, 2026
Polymarket

$483,043 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$219,590 Vol.

96%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$48,899 Vol.

93%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$15,858 Vol.

6%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$615 Vol.

2%

icon for Tarcisio de Frietas

Tarcisio de Frietas

$81,818 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$698 Vol.

1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$34,442 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$15,629 Vol.

1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$65,495 Vol.

1%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with recent surveys placing the incumbent around 39-42% and the PL senator near 30-36%, followed by lower single-digit support for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Campaign launches in mid-August emphasized Lula’s job-creation record and fuel-subsidy measures alongside Bolsonaro’s focus on crime, while minor controversies around the Bolsonaro family have not shifted the top-two positioning. With no candidate expected to reach the required majority, traders focus on which pair advances to the October 25 runoff, a pattern consistent with recent Brazilian elections. An August 23 debate offers the next notable opportunity for shifts in voter preference ahead of the first round.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$483,043
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with recent surveys placing the incumbent around 39-42% and the PL senator near 30-36%, followed by lower single-digit support for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Campaign launches in mid-August emphasized Lula’s job-creation record and fuel-subsidy measures alongside Bolsonaro’s focus on crime, while minor controversies around the Bolsonaro family have not shifted the top-two positioning. With no candidate expected to reach the required majority, traders focus on which pair advances to the October 25 runoff, a pattern consistent with recent Brazilian elections. An August 23 debate offers the next notable opportunity for shifts in voter preference ahead of the first round.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$483,043
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kaugnay

icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

10%
icon for Matatapos ba sa ikalawang pwesto si Flávio Bolsonaro sa unang round ng 2026 halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

Matatapos ba sa ikalawang pwesto si Flávio Bolsonaro sa unang round ng 2026 halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

87%
Oo
icon for Mananalo ba si Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sa 2026 na halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

Mananalo ba si Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sa 2026 na halalan sa pagkapangulo ng Brazil?

64%
Oo

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" sa 96%, sinusundan ng "Flavio Bolsonaro" sa 93%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 96¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 96% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" ay naka-generate ng $483K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Sep 18, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" ay "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" sa 96%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 96% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Flavio Bolsonaro" sa 93%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.