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icon for What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

icon for What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?

Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%

Typhoon <1%

Violent Typhoon <1%

Severe Tropical Storm <1%

Polymarket

$44,610 Vol.

Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%

Typhoon <1%

Violent Typhoon <1%

Severe Tropical Storm <1%

Polymarket

$44,610 Vol.

Tropical Storm

$2,277 Vol.

<1%

Severe Tropical Storm

$3,994 Vol.

<1%

Typhoon

$14,655 Vol.

<1%

Very Strong Typhoon

$9,698 Vol.

99%

Violent Typhoon

$6,582 Vol.

<1%

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center supports Very Strong Typhoon intensity at landfall in Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands, driven by the storm's compact core, prior rapid intensification cycles, and favorable but limited environmental conditions over the western Pacific. Current sustained winds near 85–100 knots align with Very Strong classification thresholds on the JMA scale, while historical analogs for similar late-July to early-August systems in the region show this range as typical before terrain interaction induces weakening. Trader positioning reflects high confidence in these forecasts, though realistic shifts could occur if increased vertical wind shear or dry air intrusion accelerates decay ahead of the expected landfall window.

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$44,610
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center supports Very Strong Typhoon intensity at landfall in Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands, driven by the storm's compact core, prior rapid intensification cycles, and favorable but limited environmental conditions over the western Pacific. Current sustained winds near 85–100 knots align with Very Strong classification thresholds on the JMA scale, while historical analogs for similar late-July to early-August systems in the region show this range as typical before terrain interaction induces weakening. Trader positioning reflects high confidence in these forecasts, though realistic shifts could occur if increased vertical wind shear or dry air intrusion accelerates decay ahead of the expected landfall window.

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$44,610
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Very Strong Typhoon" sa 99%, sinusundan ng "Tropical Storm" sa 0%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 99¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" ay naka-generate ng $44.6K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Aug 4, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" ay "Very Strong Typhoon" sa 99%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Tropical Storm" sa 0%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.