Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in candidate Larry Marker in the November 2026 general election after both parties completed primaries in June. New Mexico's partisan voting index and recent statewide results favor Democrats by roughly four points, giving Luján a clear structural edge reinforced by his substantial campaign resources and established institutional support. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 96 percent implied probability because no credible challenger emerged and filing deadlines have passed. A sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp national political realignment within the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNew Mexico Senate Election Winner
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
$24,244 Vol.
$24,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
96%
Republican
2%
$24,244 Vol.
$24,244 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$15,142 Vol.
96%
Republican
$9,102 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in candidate Larry Marker in the November 2026 general election after both parties completed primaries in June. New Mexico's partisan voting index and recent statewide results favor Democrats by roughly four points, giving Luján a clear structural edge reinforced by his substantial campaign resources and established institutional support. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 96 percent implied probability because no credible challenger emerged and filing deadlines have passed. A sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp national political realignment within the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Binuksan ang Market: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$24,244Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in candidate Larry Marker in the November 2026 general election after both parties completed primaries in June. New Mexico's partisan voting index and recent statewide results favor Democrats by roughly four points, giving Luján a clear structural edge reinforced by his substantial campaign resources and established institutional support. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 96 percent implied probability because no credible challenger emerged and filing deadlines have passed. A sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp national political realignment within the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$24,244Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in candidate Larry Marker in the November 2026 general election after both parties completed primaries in June. New Mexico's partisan voting index and recent statewide results favor Democrats by roughly four points, giving Luján a clear structural edge reinforced by his substantial campaign resources and established institutional support. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 96 percent implied probability because no credible challenger emerged and filing deadlines have passed. A sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp national political realignment within the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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