Recent Infratest dimap polling released in early September places the SPD at 32 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, up three points from July and narrowing the gap with the AfD to three points. This momentum stems primarily from the strong personal standing of incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by a wide margin in direct preference surveys and benefits from incumbency advantages ahead of the 20 September Landtag election. Earlier August surveys from Forsa and INSA showed the SPD in the high 20s, but the latest data reflect gains concentrated in the final campaign phase. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to an SPD result of 31 percent or above, while still pricing in meaningful risk of a lower share given the AfD’s consistent lead in most aggregates and the narrow sample margins typical at this stage.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update31%+ 43%
28-31% 33%
25-28% 16%
<25% 9.6%
$30,829 Vol.
$30,829 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<25%
10%
25-28%
16%
28-31%
33%
31%+
43%
31%+ 43%
28-31% 33%
25-28% 16%
<25% 9.6%
$30,829 Vol.
$30,829 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<25%
$4,259 Vol.
10%
25-28%
$6,682 Vol.
16%
28-31%
$3,967 Vol.
33%
31%+
$15,922 Vol.
43%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent Infratest dimap polling released in early September places the SPD at 32 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, up three points from July and narrowing the gap with the AfD to three points. This momentum stems primarily from the strong personal standing of incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by a wide margin in direct preference surveys and benefits from incumbency advantages ahead of the 20 September Landtag election. Earlier August surveys from Forsa and INSA showed the SPD in the high 20s, but the latest data reflect gains concentrated in the final campaign phase. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to an SPD result of 31 percent or above, while still pricing in meaningful risk of a lower share given the AfD’s consistent lead in most aggregates and the narrow sample margins typical at this stage.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$30,829Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent Infratest dimap polling released in early September places the SPD at 32 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, up three points from July and narrowing the gap with the AfD to three points. This momentum stems primarily from the strong personal standing of incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by a wide margin in direct preference surveys and benefits from incumbency advantages ahead of the 20 September Landtag election. Earlier August surveys from Forsa and INSA showed the SPD in the high 20s, but the latest data reflect gains concentrated in the final campaign phase. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to an SPD result of 31 percent or above, while still pricing in meaningful risk of a lower share given the AfD’s consistent lead in most aggregates and the narrow sample margins typical at this stage.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$30,829Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Infratest dimap polling released in early September places the SPD at 32 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, up three points from July and narrowing the gap with the AfD to three points. This momentum stems primarily from the strong personal standing of incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by a wide margin in direct preference surveys and benefits from incumbency advantages ahead of the 20 September Landtag election. Earlier August surveys from Forsa and INSA showed the SPD in the high 20s, but the latest data reflect gains concentrated in the final campaign phase. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to an SPD result of 31 percent or above, while still pricing in meaningful risk of a lower share given the AfD’s consistent lead in most aggregates and the narrow sample margins typical at this stage.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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