Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to fewer than five posts from the official Khamenei.ir X account during the September 4–11 window because the account has maintained a low posting cadence since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026. Activity now consists mainly of occasional archival statements or Quranic references managed by institutional channels, consistent with the roughly 0.1 posts per day observed in recent months and the account’s pattern of inactivity on most days. The new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei operates a separate verified account, leaving the original handle without fresh directives that would typically trigger higher volume. A sudden escalation in regional tensions or a major religious commemoration falling inside the resolution period could prompt additional output and shift probabilities, though historical patterns indicate such spikes remain uncommon.