Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a high near 30–31°C in Zhengzhou on August 15 under scattered clouds and isolated late thunderstorms, with light northeasterly winds limiting full insolation. This positions 31–32°C outcomes as leading market-implied probabilities, reflecting trader consensus on modest uncertainty in convective timing and boundary-layer moisture that could allow brief clearing and a higher peak. Regional summer patterns show August climatological highs averaging 32–33°C, though recent model runs incorporate cooling from variable cloud cover and prior heavy-rain episodes across Henan. Final resolution hinges on official station readings, with next model updates likely refining any diurnal heating adjustments.