Traders assign nearly identical 44.5% implied probabilities to no change or a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, underscoring a closely contested outlook shaped by mixed macroeconomic signals. Persistent inflation readings through the latest CPI releases have kept rate-hike odds elevated, while softening labor market data and moderating growth have supported the status-quo case, producing balanced sentiment backed by real capital at risk. Upcoming September employment figures, the next CPI print, and the September FOMC statement remain key swing factors that could tilt expectations ahead of year-end policy decisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 Vol.
$534,969 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 Vol.
$534,969 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$136,485 Vol.
7%
No change
$86,066 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,632 Vol.
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,794 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign nearly identical 44.5% implied probabilities to no change or a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, underscoring a closely contested outlook shaped by mixed macroeconomic signals. Persistent inflation readings through the latest CPI releases have kept rate-hike odds elevated, while softening labor market data and moderating growth have supported the status-quo case, producing balanced sentiment backed by real capital at risk. Upcoming September employment figures, the next CPI print, and the September FOMC statement remain key swing factors that could tilt expectations ahead of year-end policy decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$534,969Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign nearly identical 44.5% implied probabilities to no change or a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, underscoring a closely contested outlook shaped by mixed macroeconomic signals. Persistent inflation readings through the latest CPI releases have kept rate-hike odds elevated, while softening labor market data and moderating growth have supported the status-quo case, producing balanced sentiment backed by real capital at risk. Upcoming September employment figures, the next CPI print, and the September FOMC statement remain key swing factors that could tilt expectations ahead of year-end policy decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$534,969Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign nearly identical 44.5% implied probabilities to no change or a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, underscoring a closely contested outlook shaped by mixed macroeconomic signals. Persistent inflation readings through the latest CPI releases have kept rate-hike odds elevated, while softening labor market data and moderating growth have supported the status-quo case, producing balanced sentiment backed by real capital at risk. Upcoming September employment figures, the next CPI print, and the September FOMC statement remain key swing factors that could tilt expectations ahead of year-end policy decisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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