Lula's commanding position in Ceará for first place in the October 2026 first round reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's Northeast base, reinforced by recent national polling showing him at 38–42% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and smaller challengers. Trader consensus at 97.7% for Lula incorporates the start of formal campaigning on August 16, his party nomination with Geraldo Alckmin, and limited regional polling indicating weaker opposition traction locally compared to national averages. Factors such as Ceará's socioeconomic profile and historical voting patterns continue to favor the incumbent over right-leaning alternatives like Bolsonaro or Ronaldo Caiado. Late developments including economic shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the vote could still narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLula 97.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Zema
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 97.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$2,388 Vol.
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$660 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$387 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$325 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$307 Vol.
1%
Samara
$367 Vol.
1%
Zema
$377 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$562 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$317 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$337 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$317 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$317 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$337 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Ceará for first place in the October 2026 first round reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's Northeast base, reinforced by recent national polling showing him at 38–42% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and smaller challengers. Trader consensus at 97.7% for Lula incorporates the start of formal campaigning on August 16, his party nomination with Geraldo Alckmin, and limited regional polling indicating weaker opposition traction locally compared to national averages. Factors such as Ceará's socioeconomic profile and historical voting patterns continue to favor the incumbent over right-leaning alternatives like Bolsonaro or Ronaldo Caiado. Late developments including economic shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the vote could still narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$6,997Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position in Ceará for first place in the October 2026 first round reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's Northeast base, reinforced by recent national polling showing him at 38–42% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and smaller challengers. Trader consensus at 97.7% for Lula incorporates the start of formal campaigning on August 16, his party nomination with Geraldo Alckmin, and limited regional polling indicating weaker opposition traction locally compared to national averages. Factors such as Ceará's socioeconomic profile and historical voting patterns continue to favor the incumbent over right-leaning alternatives like Bolsonaro or Ronaldo Caiado. Late developments including economic shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the vote could still narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,997Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding position in Ceará for first place in the October 2026 first round reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's Northeast base, reinforced by recent national polling showing him at 38–42% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and smaller challengers. Trader consensus at 97.7% for Lula incorporates the start of formal campaigning on August 16, his party nomination with Geraldo Alckmin, and limited regional polling indicating weaker opposition traction locally compared to national averages. Factors such as Ceará's socioeconomic profile and historical voting patterns continue to favor the incumbent over right-leaning alternatives like Bolsonaro or Ronaldo Caiado. Late developments including economic shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the vote could still narrow margins, though current evidence points to structural advantages sustaining the lead.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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