Persistent inflation near 33.8% year-over-year in July 2026 and the central bank's inflation-linked exchange rate band, adjusted monthly with a two-month lag, remain the dominant factors supporting trader expectations for further peso depreciation through year-end. The official USD/ARS rate has climbed to approximately 1,490 amid reserve accumulation efforts and a monetary base target expansion to 4.8% of GDP. With 2026 CPI projections clustered around 29-32%, the band’s upward crawl continues to price in nominal weakening, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability on levels above 1,600 by December 31. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in BCRA intervention or fiscal support will serve as key near-term catalysts for these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update1600.00+ 64%
1500.00–1549.99 15.0%
1450.00–1499.99 11.1%
1550.00–1599.99 11.1%
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
3%
1250.00–1299.99
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
4%
1450.00–1499.99
11%
1500.00–1549.99
15%
1550.00–1599.99
11%
1600.00+
64%
1600.00+ 64%
1500.00–1549.99 15.0%
1450.00–1499.99 11.1%
1550.00–1599.99 11.1%
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
$536 Vol.
3%
1250.00–1299.99
$790 Vol.
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
$677 Vol.
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
$736 Vol.
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,239 Vol.
4%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,264 Vol.
11%
1500.00–1549.99
$1,223 Vol.
15%
1550.00–1599.99
$694 Vol.
11%
1600.00+
$1,902 Vol.
64%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistent inflation near 33.8% year-over-year in July 2026 and the central bank's inflation-linked exchange rate band, adjusted monthly with a two-month lag, remain the dominant factors supporting trader expectations for further peso depreciation through year-end. The official USD/ARS rate has climbed to approximately 1,490 amid reserve accumulation efforts and a monetary base target expansion to 4.8% of GDP. With 2026 CPI projections clustered around 29-32%, the band’s upward crawl continues to price in nominal weakening, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability on levels above 1,600 by December 31. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in BCRA intervention or fiscal support will serve as key near-term catalysts for these probabilities.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,062Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistent inflation near 33.8% year-over-year in July 2026 and the central bank's inflation-linked exchange rate band, adjusted monthly with a two-month lag, remain the dominant factors supporting trader expectations for further peso depreciation through year-end. The official USD/ARS rate has climbed to approximately 1,490 amid reserve accumulation efforts and a monetary base target expansion to 4.8% of GDP. With 2026 CPI projections clustered around 29-32%, the band’s upward crawl continues to price in nominal weakening, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability on levels above 1,600 by December 31. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in BCRA intervention or fiscal support will serve as key near-term catalysts for these probabilities.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,062Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation near 33.8% year-over-year in July 2026 and the central bank's inflation-linked exchange rate band, adjusted monthly with a two-month lag, remain the dominant factors supporting trader expectations for further peso depreciation through year-end. The official USD/ARS rate has climbed to approximately 1,490 amid reserve accumulation efforts and a monetary base target expansion to 4.8% of GDP. With 2026 CPI projections clustered around 29-32%, the band’s upward crawl continues to price in nominal weakening, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability on levels above 1,600 by December 31. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in BCRA intervention or fiscal support will serve as key near-term catalysts for these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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