**Traders assign 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because justices hold office until mandatory retirement at age 75, and no viable removal path has materialized.** Appointed in 2017, de Moraes (born 1968) faces no term limit or eligibility barrier that would force his exit before the mid-2030s. Multiple impeachment requests, primarily from Bolsonaro allies citing his rulings on social media restrictions, investigations, and the former president’s legal cases, have been filed but stalled in the Senate, which requires 54 of 81 votes to proceed; support has remained well below that threshold. Senate leadership has declined to advance the measures, and recent proposals for fixed terms (such as 12 years) are prospective reforms without retroactive effect. De Moraes continues issuing decisions into 2026 on related matters, underscoring institutional continuity. External pressure, including brief U.S. sanctions lifted in late 2025, has not altered the domestic legal or political requirements for removal.