Tight U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low continue to constrain domestic beef supplies, with 2026 commercial production forecast near 25.5 billion pounds—the lowest in a decade—supporting elevated ground beef prices that averaged $6.70–$6.90 per pound through May. Strong consumer demand for ground beef, roughly half of total consumption, has been met in part by rising lean beef imports, while heavier carcass weights provide only partial offset. USDA projections point to further retail beef price gains of 10% or more for the year amid limited herd rebuilding, though moderating later as affordability pressures build. Key near-term catalysts include summer grilling demand and any shifts in feed costs or trade flows.