Recent auction results underscore why traders assign a 70% probability to “No.” While a $236 million Klimt sale in late 2025 and an $181 million Pollock from the S.I. Newhouse collection in May 2026 demonstrate that nine-figure prices remain possible, both relied on once-in-a-generation consignments with exceptional provenance. No comparable blue-chip masterpieces carrying credible $150 million-plus estimates have surfaced for the fall and winter evening sales at Sotheby’s or Christie’s. Selective buyer participation, broader economic caution, and the thin pipeline of ultra-high-end works continue to shape consensus. Any surprise private-treaty transaction or late consignment could still move sentiment before year-end, but historical patterns show these outcomes hinge on perfect alignment of timing, condition, and collector demand.