Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus at 67% in the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election for Scarborough Southwest, ahead of Fatima Shaban at 31%, with other declared candidates such as Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees trading at minimal levels. The Liberal nominee secured the riding’s nomination in May after a narrow three-ballot victory over a sitting federal MP, demonstrating organized party support and fundraising capacity as a local business owner. The riding’s 2025 results showed the NDP ahead of the PCs and Liberals, yet the by-election occurs amid visible Liberal campaign activity, including sign installations and voter outreach. Shaban, nominated by the NDP in April as a community organizer, faces a competitive three-way contest with the PCs fielding a physician candidate. Traders appear to price in Hafiz’s organizational edge and the short timeline to election day as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAhsanul Hafiz 67%
Fatima Shaban 31%
Noor Tarun <1%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$12,437 ปริมาณ
$12,437 ปริมาณ
Ahsanul Hafiz
67%
Fatima Shaban
31%
Noor Tarun
1%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
Ahsanul Hafiz 67%
Fatima Shaban 31%
Noor Tarun <1%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$12,437 ปริมาณ
$12,437 ปริมาณ
Ahsanul Hafiz
67%
Fatima Shaban
31%
Noor Tarun
1%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus at 67% in the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election for Scarborough Southwest, ahead of Fatima Shaban at 31%, with other declared candidates such as Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees trading at minimal levels. The Liberal nominee secured the riding’s nomination in May after a narrow three-ballot victory over a sitting federal MP, demonstrating organized party support and fundraising capacity as a local business owner. The riding’s 2025 results showed the NDP ahead of the PCs and Liberals, yet the by-election occurs amid visible Liberal campaign activity, including sign installations and voter outreach. Shaban, nominated by the NDP in April as a community organizer, faces a competitive three-way contest with the PCs fielding a physician candidate. Traders appear to price in Hafiz’s organizational edge and the short timeline to election day as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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