Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Ankara on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 14?
12°C or below 74%
22°C or higher 74%
16°C 39%
17°C 38%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
12°C or below
74%
13°C
23%
14°C
29%
15°C
22%
16°C
39%
17°C
38%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C
7%
21°C
13%
22°C or higher
74%
12°C or below 74%
22°C or higher 74%
16°C 39%
17°C 38%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
12°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
74%
13°C
$0 ปริมาณ
23%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
16°C
$20 ปริมาณ
39%
17°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
18°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
19°C
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
22°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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