**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat. These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 ปริมาณ
$101,131 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
8%
12+
<1%
7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 ปริมาณ
$101,131 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 ปริมาณ
1%
5
$17,511 ปริมาณ
3%
6
$27,247 ปริมาณ
1%
7
$16,977 ปริมาณ
78%
8
$4,623 ปริมาณ
1%
9
$2,208 ปริมาณ
5%
10
$1,873 ปริมาณ
1%
11
$2,845 ปริมาณ
8%
12+
$5,112 ปริมาณ
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat.
These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$101,131วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat.
These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$101,131วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat. These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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