**Trader consensus centers on 36–39 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026, reflecting the current tally of announcements.** As of mid-August 2026, tracking sources such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents stepping aside, a near-record figure for a single cycle. This includes both full retirements from public office and departures to pursue other roles such as Senate seats or governorships. The elevated Republican count aligns with patterns seen in prior midterms under divided government or slim majorities, where members weigh primary challenges, fundraising demands, and institutional fatigue. Few additional announcements have surfaced in recent weeks, and most state filing deadlines have passed or are imminent, limiting further shifts outside the 36–39 band. Traders price smaller buckets lower because historical precedent and the pace of disclosures make outsized deviations unlikely before November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.9%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 ปริมาณ
$71,889 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
5%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
1%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.9%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 ปริมาณ
$71,889 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$6,266 ปริมาณ
1%
24–27
$20,164 ปริมาณ
2%
28–31
$23,648 ปริมาณ
1%
32–35
$6,174 ปริมาณ
5%
36–39
$8,153 ปริมาณ
83%
40–43
$3,871 ปริมาณ
6%
44+
$3,613 ปริมาณ
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus centers on 36–39 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026, reflecting the current tally of announcements.**
As of mid-August 2026, tracking sources such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents stepping aside, a near-record figure for a single cycle. This includes both full retirements from public office and departures to pursue other roles such as Senate seats or governorships. The elevated Republican count aligns with patterns seen in prior midterms under divided government or slim majorities, where members weigh primary challenges, fundraising demands, and institutional fatigue. Few additional announcements have surfaced in recent weeks, and most state filing deadlines have passed or are imminent, limiting further shifts outside the 36–39 band. Traders price smaller buckets lower because historical precedent and the pace of disclosures make outsized deviations unlikely before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,889วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus centers on 36–39 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026, reflecting the current tally of announcements.**
As of mid-August 2026, tracking sources such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents stepping aside, a near-record figure for a single cycle. This includes both full retirements from public office and departures to pursue other roles such as Senate seats or governorships. The elevated Republican count aligns with patterns seen in prior midterms under divided government or slim majorities, where members weigh primary challenges, fundraising demands, and institutional fatigue. Few additional announcements have surfaced in recent weeks, and most state filing deadlines have passed or are imminent, limiting further shifts outside the 36–39 band. Traders price smaller buckets lower because historical precedent and the pace of disclosures make outsized deviations unlikely before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,889วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on 36–39 Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026, reflecting the current tally of announcements.** As of mid-August 2026, tracking sources such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total incumbents stepping aside, a near-record figure for a single cycle. This includes both full retirements from public office and departures to pursue other roles such as Senate seats or governorships. The elevated Republican count aligns with patterns seen in prior midterms under divided government or slim majorities, where members weigh primary challenges, fundraising demands, and institutional fatigue. Few additional announcements have surfaced in recent weeks, and most state filing deadlines have passed or are imminent, limiting further shifts outside the 36–39 band. Traders price smaller buckets lower because historical precedent and the pace of disclosures make outsized deviations unlikely before November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย