Luke Bronin holds the lead in the August 11 Democratic primary for Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District, following his narrow victory over 14-term incumbent John Larson at the May 2026 party convention, where Bronin secured the endorsement on the second ballot by a 51.2%–48.8% margin. This outcome, described as unprecedented for a sitting member of Congress in the state, positioned Bronin atop the primary ballot and reflected delegate support shifting toward the former Hartford mayor. A late-May poll showed Bronin ahead of Larson 38%–30% among likely primary voters, with smaller shares for state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and others. Gilchrest and Ruth Fortune qualified for the ballot, but both trail significantly in available polling and fundraising indicators. The convention result and subsequent polling have shaped trader consensus around Bronin’s edge, though the roughly two-month window before the primary leaves room for shifts driven by additional endorsements, spending, or turnout patterns in the Hartford-area district.