**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85%) on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day window for final negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related issues, with explicit reference to eventual UNSC endorsement of any comprehensive agreement. That period expired around mid-August without a finalized text or binding resolution. Ongoing technical talks and IAEA inspection discussions have produced incremental steps, such as resumed monitoring commitments, but core gaps persist on enrichment levels, verification, and sanctions snapback mechanisms tied to prior resolutions like 2231. July 2026 UN Security Council briefings highlighted divisions among members, "lost continuity of knowledge" on Iran's nuclear program following earlier military exchanges, and disagreements over sanctions implementation. Regional actors, including Israel, have voiced reservations, complicating consensus required for Council action. With only months remaining and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with the absence of verifiable progress toward a deal eligible for UNSC endorsement by year-end. Historical precedent for prolonged Iran nuclear diplomacy and the need for P5+1 alignment further support the current pricing.