Current forecasts show Super Typhoon Dolphin positioned in the East China Sea roughly 550 km east of Wenzhou and tracking steadily west-northwest, placing it on a direct course for landfall along China's eastern coast, particularly Zhejiang Province, between August 9 and 10. Multiple meteorological models and official advisories maintain tight consensus on this path after the system crossed near Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa, with only gradual weakening expected before impact. This proximity and consistent steering pattern explain the near-certain trader consensus. Residual uncertainty remains from potential late trochoidal wobbles in the track or unexpected environmental changes that could shift the center slightly offshore or accelerate intensity loss, though such shifts appear limited at this advanced stage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСупертайфун «Дельфин» обрушится на Китай?
Супертайфун «Дельфин» обрушится на Китай?
Да
99% вероятность
$202,372 Объем
$202,372 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
Да
99% вероятность
$202,372 Объем
$202,372 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current forecasts show Super Typhoon Dolphin positioned in the East China Sea roughly 550 km east of Wenzhou and tracking steadily west-northwest, placing it on a direct course for landfall along China's eastern coast, particularly Zhejiang Province, between August 9 and 10. Multiple meteorological models and official advisories maintain tight consensus on this path after the system crossed near Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa, with only gradual weakening expected before impact. This proximity and consistent steering pattern explain the near-certain trader consensus. Residual uncertainty remains from potential late trochoidal wobbles in the track or unexpected environmental changes that could shift the center slightly offshore or accelerate intensity loss, though such shifts appear limited at this advanced stage.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Открытие рынка: Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Объем
$202,372Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current forecasts show Super Typhoon Dolphin positioned in the East China Sea roughly 550 km east of Wenzhou and tracking steadily west-northwest, placing it on a direct course for landfall along China's eastern coast, particularly Zhejiang Province, between August 9 and 10. Multiple meteorological models and official advisories maintain tight consensus on this path after the system crossed near Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa, with only gradual weakening expected before impact. This proximity and consistent steering pattern explain the near-certain trader consensus. Residual uncertainty remains from potential late trochoidal wobbles in the track or unexpected environmental changes that could shift the center slightly offshore or accelerate intensity loss, though such shifts appear limited at this advanced stage.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Объем
$202,372Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current forecasts show Super Typhoon Dolphin positioned in the East China Sea roughly 550 km east of Wenzhou and tracking steadily west-northwest, placing it on a direct course for landfall along China's eastern coast, particularly Zhejiang Province, between August 9 and 10. Multiple meteorological models and official advisories maintain tight consensus on this path after the system crossed near Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa, with only gradual weakening expected before impact. This proximity and consistent steering pattern explain the near-certain trader consensus. Residual uncertainty remains from potential late trochoidal wobbles in the track or unexpected environmental changes that could shift the center slightly offshore or accelerate intensity loss, though such shifts appear limited at this advanced stage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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