Recent assessments from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense highlight that the People’s Liberation Army continues to prioritize joint island-landing capabilities yet still lacks sufficient amphibious lift, logistics, and command readiness for a complex invasion. Xi Jinping’s extensive 2026 military purges, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission officers, have further eroded operational competence and trust within the PLA. Beijing’s drills emphasize blockade and encirclement tactics rather than immediate assault, while Taiwan advances asymmetric defenses including anti-ship missiles, drones, and sea-denial systems informed by conflicts elsewhere. These factors, alongside persistent capability gaps noted in U.S. and allied reporting, underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely through the end of 2027 despite ongoing rhetorical commitments to reunification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$3,090,928 Объем
$3,090,928 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
12% вероятность
$3,090,928 Объем
$3,090,928 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense highlight that the People’s Liberation Army continues to prioritize joint island-landing capabilities yet still lacks sufficient amphibious lift, logistics, and command readiness for a complex invasion. Xi Jinping’s extensive 2026 military purges, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission officers, have further eroded operational competence and trust within the PLA. Beijing’s drills emphasize blockade and encirclement tactics rather than immediate assault, while Taiwan advances asymmetric defenses including anti-ship missiles, drones, and sea-denial systems informed by conflicts elsewhere. These factors, alongside persistent capability gaps noted in U.S. and allied reporting, underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely through the end of 2027 despite ongoing rhetorical commitments to reunification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$3,090,928Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense highlight that the People’s Liberation Army continues to prioritize joint island-landing capabilities yet still lacks sufficient amphibious lift, logistics, and command readiness for a complex invasion. Xi Jinping’s extensive 2026 military purges, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission officers, have further eroded operational competence and trust within the PLA. Beijing’s drills emphasize blockade and encirclement tactics rather than immediate assault, while Taiwan advances asymmetric defenses including anti-ship missiles, drones, and sea-denial systems informed by conflicts elsewhere. These factors, alongside persistent capability gaps noted in U.S. and allied reporting, underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely through the end of 2027 despite ongoing rhetorical commitments to reunification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,090,928Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent assessments from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense highlight that the People’s Liberation Army continues to prioritize joint island-landing capabilities yet still lacks sufficient amphibious lift, logistics, and command readiness for a complex invasion. Xi Jinping’s extensive 2026 military purges, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission officers, have further eroded operational competence and trust within the PLA. Beijing’s drills emphasize blockade and encirclement tactics rather than immediate assault, while Taiwan advances asymmetric defenses including anti-ship missiles, drones, and sea-denial systems informed by conflicts elsewhere. These factors, alongside persistent capability gaps noted in U.S. and allied reporting, underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely through the end of 2027 despite ongoing rhetorical commitments to reunification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы