Alberta remains a Canadian province under constitutional frameworks that require federal approval and provincial referendums for any separation or realignment, with no organized political movement, polling support, or legislative proposals advancing union with the United States. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the status quo persisting because economic and sovereignty considerations in Alberta have not produced viable pathways or cross-border negotiations. No major diplomatic, electoral, or policy developments in the past year have altered this baseline. Extreme hypothetical shifts, such as a Canadian constitutional crisis or formal bilateral treaty process, could theoretically reopen the question, though none are underway or under active discussion.