**Ongoing tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, particularly the Pacific Ring of Fire, drives the likelihood of additional magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes before the end of September 2026.** USGS data show 95 M6+ events worldwide through late August, including recent shallow events such as the M7.7 in Indonesia’s Flores Sea and M7.4 in Colombia, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly 15–16 M7+ quakes globally. Subduction zones in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and parts of Central and South America remain the most active regions, where aftershock sequences and background seismicity continue. No authoritative short-term forecasts exist, as precise timing and location remain unpredictable; traders should monitor real-time USGS and regional agency updates for any model shifts or new aftershock patterns that could influence resolution criteria based on magnitude thresholds and geographic boundaries.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоГде произойдет землетрясение магнитудой 6,0 + к концу сентября?
Где произойдет землетрясение магнитудой 6,0 + к концу сентября?
НОВОЕ
3 окт. 2026 г.
Индонезия
50%
Япония
50%
Чили
50%
Мексика
50%
Соединённые Штаты
50%
Филиппины
50%
Перу
50%
$0.00 Объем
Индонезия
$0 Объем
50%
Япония
$0 Объем
50%
Чили
$0 Объем
50%
Мексика
$0 Объем
50%
Соединённые Штаты
$0 Объем
50%
Филиппины
$0 Объем
50%
Перу
$0 Объем
50%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**Ongoing tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, particularly the Pacific Ring of Fire, drives the likelihood of additional magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes before the end of September 2026.** USGS data show 95 M6+ events worldwide through late August, including recent shallow events such as the M7.7 in Indonesia’s Flores Sea and M7.4 in Colombia, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly 15–16 M7+ quakes globally. Subduction zones in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and parts of Central and South America remain the most active regions, where aftershock sequences and background seismicity continue. No authoritative short-term forecasts exist, as precise timing and location remain unpredictable; traders should monitor real-time USGS and regional agency updates for any model shifts or new aftershock patterns that could influence resolution criteria based on magnitude thresholds and geographic boundaries.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**Ongoing tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, particularly the Pacific Ring of Fire, drives the likelihood of additional magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes before the end of September 2026.** USGS data show 95 M6+ events worldwide through late August, including recent shallow events such as the M7.7 in Indonesia’s Flores Sea and M7.4 in Colombia, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly 15–16 M7+ quakes globally. Subduction zones in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and parts of Central and South America remain the most active regions, where aftershock sequences and background seismicity continue. No authoritative short-term forecasts exist, as precise timing and location remain unpredictable; traders should monitor real-time USGS and regional agency updates for any model shifts or new aftershock patterns that could influence resolution criteria based on magnitude thresholds and geographic boundaries.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$0Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing tectonic activity along major plate boundaries, particularly the Pacific Ring of Fire, drives the likelihood of additional magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes before the end of September 2026.** USGS data show 95 M6+ events worldwide through late August, including recent shallow events such as the M7.7 in Indonesia’s Flores Sea and M7.4 in Colombia, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly 15–16 M7+ quakes globally. Subduction zones in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and parts of Central and South America remain the most active regions, where aftershock sequences and background seismicity continue. No authoritative short-term forecasts exist, as precise timing and location remain unpredictable; traders should monitor real-time USGS and regional agency updates for any model shifts or new aftershock patterns that could influence resolution criteria based on magnitude thresholds and geographic boundaries.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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