Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with prediction markets assigning roughly 95-96% probability of victory over Republican nominee and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. This positioning stems from Shapiro's established incumbency advantage, consistent polling leads of 10-25 points in recent surveys, strong fundraising, and unopposed primary wins for both candidates. Traders appear to view the race as low-volatility given Pennsylvania's structural Democratic edge in recent statewide contests and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include significant national political realignments, economic downturns affecting swing-state voters, late-breaking scandals, or health-related events affecting either candidate before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов губернатора Пенсильвании
Победитель выборов губернатора Пенсильвании
$26,502 Объем
$26,502 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
96%
Республиканец
6%
$26,502 Объем
$26,502 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
$7,266 Объем
96%
Республиканец
$19,236 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with prediction markets assigning roughly 95-96% probability of victory over Republican nominee and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. This positioning stems from Shapiro's established incumbency advantage, consistent polling leads of 10-25 points in recent surveys, strong fundraising, and unopposed primary wins for both candidates. Traders appear to view the race as low-volatility given Pennsylvania's structural Democratic edge in recent statewide contests and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include significant national political realignments, economic downturns affecting swing-state voters, late-breaking scandals, or health-related events affecting either candidate before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Объем
$26,502Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with prediction markets assigning roughly 95-96% probability of victory over Republican nominee and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. This positioning stems from Shapiro's established incumbency advantage, consistent polling leads of 10-25 points in recent surveys, strong fundraising, and unopposed primary wins for both candidates. Traders appear to view the race as low-volatility given Pennsylvania's structural Democratic edge in recent statewide contests and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include significant national political realignments, economic downturns affecting swing-state voters, late-breaking scandals, or health-related events affecting either candidate before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$26,502Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with prediction markets assigning roughly 95-96% probability of victory over Republican nominee and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. This positioning stems from Shapiro's established incumbency advantage, consistent polling leads of 10-25 points in recent surveys, strong fundraising, and unopposed primary wins for both candidates. Traders appear to view the race as low-volatility given Pennsylvania's structural Democratic edge in recent statewide contests and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include significant national political realignments, economic downturns affecting swing-state voters, late-breaking scandals, or health-related events affecting either candidate before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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