Reinaldo Azambuja leads consolidated polling for the two Mato Grosso do Sul Senate seats, leaving the contest for second place open among several contenders. Capitão Contar maintains the strongest position in recent surveys from early August, backed by PL party organization and prior statewide name recognition, while candidates such as Vander Loubet, Soraya Thronicke, and others register lower single-digit to low-double-digit support. The absence of major endorsements, televised debates, or coalition announcements in the past month has kept probabilities compressed around these figures. National political themes, including judicial reform debates, have surfaced in some campaigns but have not yet produced measurable shifts in state-level voter preferences. Further polling releases, primary alignments, or late-campaign events could widen gaps before October voting.