Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Ухане 18 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Ухане 18 сентября?
14°C или ниже 73%
24°C или выше 73%
20°C 45%
19°C 44%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
73%
15°C
15%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
40%
19°C
37%
20°C
26%
21°C
8%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C или выше
73%
14°C или ниже 73%
24°C или выше 73%
20°C 45%
19°C 44%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$0 Объем
73%
15°C
$0 Объем
15%
16°C
$0 Объем
18%
17°C
$0 Объем
18%
18°C
$0 Объем
40%
19°C
$17 Объем
37%
20°C
$105 Объем
26%
21°C
$142 Объем
8%
22°C
$0 Объем
39%
23°C
$0 Объем
39%
24°C или выше
$0 Объем
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$264Дата окончания
18 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$264Дата окончания
18 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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