Warm, humid conditions driven by southerly flow and elevated dew points are limiting overnight radiational cooling across the New York City area ahead of August 7, supporting the market's strong consensus for a minimum temperature in the 78–79 °F range. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models show highs near 90 °F with lows holding in the mid- to upper 70s due to the warm air mass and potential for lingering cloud cover or scattered showers, which reduce temperature drops compared to clearer, drier nights. Recent model runs have trended slightly warmer overnight, reinforcing trader positioning around 78–79 °F while leaving room for modest uncertainty from timing of any convection or subtle shifts in steering patterns. Historical August norms for Central Park place typical lows near 70 °F, making the current elevated baseline the key driver of implied probabilities.