**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate persistently warm overnight conditions for Los Angeles on September 9, with forecast lows generally in the mid-70s at coastal and airport stations.** This aligns with the market’s leading implied probability on 82°F or higher (47.5%), followed by 74–75°F (31%), reflecting trader expectations of limited nocturnal cooling under strong high pressure, light winds, and clear to mostly clear skies. September climatology at LAX shows average daily lows near 64°F, so current forecasts represent a notable positive anomaly driven by the absence of a strong marine layer or onshore flow. Recent observations (early September lows mostly 64–67°F) and the lack of incoming troughs or stronger sea breezes support the warm bias, with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing minimal change through the period. Key resolution thresholds center on official minimum readings at primary LA stations; any unexpected increase in cloud cover or onshore flow could lower the minimum into the upper 60s or low 70s, though such shifts appear unlikely in the short term. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will provide the primary near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.