Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most surveys placing the party in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s amid competition from centrist and opposition lists. This positioning reflects sustained erosion of support tied to the lingering effects of the judicial reform push, the security fallout from October 7, and the emergence of new challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Likud's recent primaries, marked by internal competition for limited realistic slots and lower turnout than in 2022, have underscored these pressures without reversing the downward trend in seat projections. Trader consensus on a high probability of seat losses aligns with this polling pattern and the structural challenges of forming a stable majority coalition under proportional representation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено89% вероятность
$11,128 Объем
$11,128 Объем
26 окт. 2026 г.
89% вероятность
$11,128 Объем
$11,128 Объем
26 окт. 2026 г.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most surveys placing the party in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s amid competition from centrist and opposition lists. This positioning reflects sustained erosion of support tied to the lingering effects of the judicial reform push, the security fallout from October 7, and the emergence of new challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Likud's recent primaries, marked by internal competition for limited realistic slots and lower turnout than in 2022, have underscored these pressures without reversing the downward trend in seat projections. Trader consensus on a high probability of seat losses aligns with this polling pattern and the structural challenges of forming a stable majority coalition under proportional representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$11,128Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most surveys placing the party in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s amid competition from centrist and opposition lists. This positioning reflects sustained erosion of support tied to the lingering effects of the judicial reform push, the security fallout from October 7, and the emergence of new challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Likud's recent primaries, marked by internal competition for limited realistic slots and lower turnout than in 2022, have underscored these pressures without reversing the downward trend in seat projections. Trader consensus on a high probability of seat losses aligns with this polling pattern and the structural challenges of forming a stable majority coalition under proportional representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Объем
$11,128Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud below its current 32 seats, with most surveys placing the party in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s amid competition from centrist and opposition lists. This positioning reflects sustained erosion of support tied to the lingering effects of the judicial reform push, the security fallout from October 7, and the emergence of new challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Likud's recent primaries, marked by internal competition for limited realistic slots and lower turnout than in 2022, have underscored these pressures without reversing the downward trend in seat projections. Trader consensus on a high probability of seat losses aligns with this polling pattern and the structural challenges of forming a stable majority coalition under proportional representation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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