Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of the approximately 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels and halting active enrichment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a nuclear status quo, required IAEA-supervised down-blending or monitoring of stockpiles, and opened follow-on negotiations for a final agreement. IAEA reports confirm loss of continuity of knowledge at struck sites and ongoing access disputes, while satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction activity at secondary locations. These developments have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent probability assigned to no Iranian nuclear weapon before 2027.