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Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 72.9%

Нет главы государства 7.4%

Реза Пехлеви 4.5%

Ахмад Вahidi 2.9%

Polymarket

$33,726,328 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 72.9%

Нет главы государства 7.4%

Реза Пехлеви 4.5%

Ахмад Вahidi 2.9%

Polymarket

$33,726,328 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$4,516,037 Объем

73%

Нет главы государства

$1,016,865 Объем

7%

Реза Пехлеви

$515,023 Объем

4%

Ахмад Вahidi

$592,985 Объем

3%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф

$748,486 Объем

2%

Алиреза Арафи

$2,138,978 Объем

1%

Аббас Арагчи

$702,036 Объем

1%

Хасан Рухани

$846,790 Объем

1%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$851,814 Объем

1%

Хассан Хомейни

$1,280,454 Объем

<1%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$975,506 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$5,031,204 Объем

<1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$407,560 Объем

<1%

Садег Лариджани

$505,205 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$1,761,657 Объем

<1%

Марьям Раджави

$785,147 Объем

<1%

Массуд Раджави

$375,946 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$3,663,982 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$126,837 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$192,784 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$178,288 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$821,570 Объем

<1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$413,684 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$3,326,950 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$223,851 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$367,665 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$267,547 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$238,793 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$290,031 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$325,795 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$33,726,328
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$33,726,328
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Связанные

icon for Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?

Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?

4%
Да
icon for Будет ли Дельси Родригес фактическим лидером Венесуэлы к концу 2026 года?

Будет ли Дельси Родригес фактическим лидером Венесуэлы к концу 2026 года?

91%
Да
icon for Падёт ли иранский режим до 2027 года?

Падёт ли иранский режим до 2027 года?

11%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 73%, за ним следует «Нет главы государства» с 7%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 73¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 73%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $33.7 million с момента запуска рынка Feb 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 73%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 73%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Нет главы государства» с 7%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.