Persistent Houthi naval blockade threats announced on July 20, 2026, triggered an immediate rerouting of commercial traffic away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity ship transits falling to an average of 31 over July 25–26 according to Clarksons Research—roughly half the prior suppressed baseline. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and Windward confirm sharp volume drops, including multiple tankers reversing course, keeping weekly aggregates well below 220 even when including container and dry-bulk calls tracked by IMF Portwatch. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects traders pricing in sustained geopolitical risk premiums and elevated insurance costs that continue to favor Cape of Good Hope diversions. A material rebound in daily crossings above 35–40 sustained through the resolution window would be required to challenge the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 20 июля?
Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 20 июля?
<220 100.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,776 Объем
$18,776 Объем
26 июл. 2026 г.
<220
100%
220-229
<1%
230-239
<1%
240-249
<1%
250-259
<1%
260+
<1%
<220 100.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,776 Объем
$18,776 Объем
26 июл. 2026 г.
<220
$9,646 Объем
100%
220-229
$2,962 Объем
<1%
230-239
$1,282 Объем
<1%
240-249
$1,580 Объем
<1%
250-259
$1,348 Объем
<1%
260+
$1,957 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Persistent Houthi naval blockade threats announced on July 20, 2026, triggered an immediate rerouting of commercial traffic away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity ship transits falling to an average of 31 over July 25–26 according to Clarksons Research—roughly half the prior suppressed baseline. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and Windward confirm sharp volume drops, including multiple tankers reversing course, keeping weekly aggregates well below 220 even when including container and dry-bulk calls tracked by IMF Portwatch. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects traders pricing in sustained geopolitical risk premiums and elevated insurance costs that continue to favor Cape of Good Hope diversions. A material rebound in daily crossings above 35–40 sustained through the resolution window would be required to challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ET
Объем
$18,776Дата окончания
26 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Persistent Houthi naval blockade threats announced on July 20, 2026, triggered an immediate rerouting of commercial traffic away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity ship transits falling to an average of 31 over July 25–26 according to Clarksons Research—roughly half the prior suppressed baseline. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and Windward confirm sharp volume drops, including multiple tankers reversing course, keeping weekly aggregates well below 220 even when including container and dry-bulk calls tracked by IMF Portwatch. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects traders pricing in sustained geopolitical risk premiums and elevated insurance costs that continue to favor Cape of Good Hope diversions. A material rebound in daily crossings above 35–40 sustained through the resolution window would be required to challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$18,776Дата окончания
26 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi naval blockade threats announced on July 20, 2026, triggered an immediate rerouting of commercial traffic away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily commodity ship transits falling to an average of 31 over July 25–26 according to Clarksons Research—roughly half the prior suppressed baseline. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and Windward confirm sharp volume drops, including multiple tankers reversing course, keeping weekly aggregates well below 220 even when including container and dry-bulk calls tracked by IMF Portwatch. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects traders pricing in sustained geopolitical risk premiums and elevated insurance costs that continue to favor Cape of Good Hope diversions. A material rebound in daily crossings above 35–40 sustained through the resolution window would be required to challenge the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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