**Latest official forecasts position mid-30s Celsius as the most probable range for Taipei’s peak temperature on August 13.** Central Weather Administration (CWA) guidance and international models from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicate a daytime high near 36 °C (96–97 °F), with afternoon thundershowers and high humidity typical of Taipei’s subtropical summer pattern. These conditions favor the market’s leading outcomes at 36 °C (42 %) and 37 °C (31.5 %), as urban heat-island effects and weak steering winds limit rapid cooling despite cloud cover. Recent model consensus shows minimal day-to-day variability, with no approaching tropical systems or strong cold-air intrusions to alter the trajectory. Afternoon convective activity may cap the extreme upper tail, keeping probabilities for 38 °C or higher below 7 % while supporting a modest chance of 35 °C if showers arrive earlier. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast updates heavily, consistent with historical August variability where peaks commonly reach 34–36 °C under similar synoptic setups. Updated CWA briefings and morning model runs on August 13 will provide the final resolution data.