**Trader consensus around a 33°C peak for Hong Kong on September 12, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory showing an afternoon maximum of 33.1°C under partly cloudy conditions with moderate easterly flow.** Real-time station readings captured the diurnal rise peaking near 15:30 local time, consistent with typical mid-September climatology when sea breezes and humidity moderate but do not fully suppress daytime heating. The 99.8% market-implied probability for 33°C indicates traders assessed that the official absolute daily maximum would settle squarely in this bin once finalized in the Observatory’s daily extract. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-processing revisions or measurement discrepancies, though historical patterns show such adjustments rarely alter the reported maximum by a full degree. Updated model runs and range conditions ahead of similar near-term dates will continue to inform positioning where uncertainty is higher.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 12 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Гонконге 12 сентября?
33°C 99.8%
25°C или ниже <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$130,329 Объем
$130,329 Объем
12 сент. 2026 г.
25°C или ниже
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C или выше
<1%
33°C 99.8%
25°C или ниже <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$130,329 Объем
$130,329 Объем
12 сент. 2026 г.
25°C или ниже
$374 Объем
<1%
26°C
$125 Объем
<1%
27°C
$608 Объем
<1%
28°C
$4,821 Объем
<1%
29°C
$7,704 Объем
<1%
30°C
$16,310 Объем
<1%
31°C
$36,954 Объем
<1%
32°C
$26,674 Объем
<1%
33°C
$28,078 Объем
100%
34°C
$7,215 Объем
<1%
35°C или выше
$1,466 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus around a 33°C peak for Hong Kong on September 12, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory showing an afternoon maximum of 33.1°C under partly cloudy conditions with moderate easterly flow.** Real-time station readings captured the diurnal rise peaking near 15:30 local time, consistent with typical mid-September climatology when sea breezes and humidity moderate but do not fully suppress daytime heating. The 99.8% market-implied probability for 33°C indicates traders assessed that the official absolute daily maximum would settle squarely in this bin once finalized in the Observatory’s daily extract.
Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-processing revisions or measurement discrepancies, though historical patterns show such adjustments rarely alter the reported maximum by a full degree. Updated model runs and range conditions ahead of similar near-term dates will continue to inform positioning where uncertainty is higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$130,329Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus around a 33°C peak for Hong Kong on September 12, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory showing an afternoon maximum of 33.1°C under partly cloudy conditions with moderate easterly flow.** Real-time station readings captured the diurnal rise peaking near 15:30 local time, consistent with typical mid-September climatology when sea breezes and humidity moderate but do not fully suppress daytime heating. The 99.8% market-implied probability for 33°C indicates traders assessed that the official absolute daily maximum would settle squarely in this bin once finalized in the Observatory’s daily extract.
Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-processing revisions or measurement discrepancies, though historical patterns show such adjustments rarely alter the reported maximum by a full degree. Updated model runs and range conditions ahead of similar near-term dates will continue to inform positioning where uncertainty is higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$130,329Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus around a 33°C peak for Hong Kong on September 12, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory showing an afternoon maximum of 33.1°C under partly cloudy conditions with moderate easterly flow.** Real-time station readings captured the diurnal rise peaking near 15:30 local time, consistent with typical mid-September climatology when sea breezes and humidity moderate but do not fully suppress daytime heating. The 99.8% market-implied probability for 33°C indicates traders assessed that the official absolute daily maximum would settle squarely in this bin once finalized in the Observatory’s daily extract. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-processing revisions or measurement discrepancies, though historical patterns show such adjustments rarely alter the reported maximum by a full degree. Updated model runs and range conditions ahead of similar near-term dates will continue to inform positioning where uncertainty is higher.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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