Trader consensus around 24–26°C for Chengdu’s August 2 maximum reflects uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid typical East Asian monsoon conditions. Persistent moisture and expected afternoon showers or thundershowers are likely to increase cloud cover and limit solar heating, keeping highs near or slightly below the seasonal 29–31°C baseline. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in timing and intensity of precipitation, with some runs favoring more overcast skies that cap readings at 24–25°C while drier breaks could allow 26–27°C. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration observations and model updates through the next 24–48 hours will resolve these variables ahead of market settlement.