Latest official forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models point to a daily maximum of 14–15°C in Buenos Aires on August 6, directly supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward these outcomes amid typical mid-winter conditions. Reduced solar insolation, prevailing westerly flow, and absence of significant warm-air advection keep temperatures near seasonal norms, with historical August highs averaging 15–17°C. Recent model runs show tight clustering around this range and limited day-to-day variability, though minor shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could still produce a 1°C swing before resolution. Traders are anchoring on verified observational baselines and consensus guidance rather than outlier scenarios, as any last-minute changes in steering patterns remain the key uncertainty before the day’s peak is recorded.