**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (96.4%) on Zapatero’s arrest by June 30 because the ongoing judicial process shows no imminent detention risk in the narrow remaining window.** Zapatero, Spain’s former Socialist prime minister (2004–2011), was formally placed under investigation by the Audiencia Nacional on May 19, 2026, for alleged influence peddling, money laundering, and related offenses tied to the 2021 €53 million public bailout of airline Plus Ultra. Police raided his office that month, and he appeared for questioning on June 2 and again on June 17, when he denied all wrongdoing. The probe, assisted in part by U.S. Homeland Security, remains at the formal inquiry stage; no final charges have been confirmed in primary court updates, and he has not been taken into custody. Spanish procedure requires a specific judicial order for provisional detention—typically based on demonstrated flight risk, evidence tampering, or similar factors—which has not materialized. A private accusation has floated the idea of seeking detention, but this lacks the weight of the main investigation and aligns with the slow pace of high-profile cases. With only days left until the June 30 cutoff and Zapatero’s recent court appearance occurring without restriction, traders assess arrest as highly improbable absent a sudden, unforeseen escalation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome before the deadline include the emergence of new compelling evidence prompting an immediate detention order or an unexpected judicial determination of flight risk. Such developments remain outliers given the current trajectory. The market price reflects the “wisdom of crowds” pricing in these procedural and timing realities rather than any guarantee about longer-term resolution.