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icon for O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?

O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?

icon for O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?

O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?

$767,372 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$767,372 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de dezembro

$159 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in the 2024 snap vote, is serving a standard four-year term scheduled to conclude in 2028, with no active constitutional triggers—such as death, resignation, or incapacity under Article 131—currently in place to force an earlier presidential election.** Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in February 2026 and the subsequent Assembly of Experts selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian authorities have focused on leadership consolidation rather than scheduling a new presidential contest. Pezeshkian has publicly reaffirmed his intent to remain in office, rejecting resignation reports, while potential candidates for 2028 have begun positioning. Trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for a vote by late 2026 or early 2027 aligns with the lack of recent developments that would compel an unscheduled election before the regular cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$767,372
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in the 2024 snap vote, is serving a standard four-year term scheduled to conclude in 2028, with no active constitutional triggers—such as death, resignation, or incapacity under Article 131—currently in place to force an earlier presidential election.** Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in February 2026 and the subsequent Assembly of Experts selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian authorities have focused on leadership consolidation rather than scheduling a new presidential contest. Pezeshkian has publicly reaffirmed his intent to remain in office, rejecting resignation reports, while potential candidates for 2028 have begun positioning. Trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for a vote by late 2026 or early 2027 aligns with the lack of recent developments that would compel an unscheduled election before the regular cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$767,372
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 46%, followed by "30 de junho" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?" has generated $767.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de junho" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O Irã realizará uma eleição presidencial até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.