Ongoing bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side, alongside agricultural purchase commitments and critical minerals issues. These build on the November 2025 framework that suspended or lowered select tariffs, including fentanyl-related duties, with extensions running through November 2026. Recent Section 301 actions on forced labor have added targeted duties but have not halted working-level negotiations. Traders price the December 31, 2026, deadline as likely to produce an announced package of tariff adjustments or extensions, given institutional mechanisms and the approaching review of current truce terms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% chance
$220,590 Vol.
$220,590 Vol.
30 dez 2026
89% chance
$220,590 Vol.
$220,590 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side, alongside agricultural purchase commitments and critical minerals issues. These build on the November 2025 framework that suspended or lowered select tariffs, including fentanyl-related duties, with extensions running through November 2026. Recent Section 301 actions on forced labor have added targeted duties but have not halted working-level negotiations. Traders price the December 31, 2026, deadline as likely to produce an announced package of tariff adjustments or extensions, given institutional mechanisms and the approaching review of current truce terms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$220,590Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side, alongside agricultural purchase commitments and critical minerals issues. These build on the November 2025 framework that suspended or lowered select tariffs, including fentanyl-related duties, with extensions running through November 2026. Recent Section 301 actions on forced labor have added targeted duties but have not halted working-level negotiations. Traders price the December 31, 2026, deadline as likely to produce an announced package of tariff adjustments or extensions, given institutional mechanisms and the approaching review of current truce terms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$220,590Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, focus on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side, alongside agricultural purchase commitments and critical minerals issues. These build on the November 2025 framework that suspended or lowered select tariffs, including fentanyl-related duties, with extensions running through November 2026. Recent Section 301 actions on forced labor have added targeted duties but have not halted working-level negotiations. Traders price the December 31, 2026, deadline as likely to produce an announced package of tariff adjustments or extensions, given institutional mechanisms and the approaching review of current truce terms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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