President Trump's July 2026 conditioning of the signed 123 agreement on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords has created a major procedural barrier, as Riyadh maintains longstanding preconditions tied to Palestinian statehood and has shown no movement toward normalization with Israel. The deal, transmitted to Congress in late August for the required 90-day review under the Atomic Energy Act, faces bipartisan scrutiny over uranium enrichment pathways, verification measures short of the IAEA Additional Protocol, and proliferation risks in the region. These factors, combined with the compressed timeline to year-end, underpin trader consensus that the agreement is unlikely to clear all implementation steps and enter into force by December 31, 2026.