Skip to main content
icon for Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts

icon for Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts

Markey 40%+ 43%

Moulton <5% 43%

Markey 5–10% 42%

Markey 15–20% 41%

Polymarket
NOVO

Markey 40%+ 43%

Moulton <5% 43%

Markey 5–10% 42%

Markey 15–20% 41%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Markey 40%+

Markey 40%+

$16 Vol.

43%

icon for Markey 35–40%

Markey 35–40%

$16 Vol.

19%

icon for Markey 30–35%

Markey 30–35%

$16 Vol.

26%

icon for Markey 25–30%

Markey 25–30%

$23 Vol.

35%

icon for Markey 20–25%

Markey 20–25%

$16 Vol.

35%

icon for Markey 15–20%

Markey 15–20%

$16 Vol.

41%

icon for Markey 10–15%

Markey 10–15%

$16 Vol.

27%

icon for Markey 5–10%

Markey 5–10%

$16 Vol.

42%

icon for Markey <5%

Markey <5%

$16 Vol.

22%

icon for Moulton <5%

Moulton <5%

$16 Vol.

43%

icon for Moulton 5%+

Moulton 5%+

$101 Vol.

5%

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$268
Data de Término
1 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$268
Data de Término
1 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Relacionado

icon for O candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para o Senado de Massachusetts em 2026 por uma margem de 35%-40%?

O candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para o Senado de Massachusetts em 2026 por uma margem de 35%-40%?

20%
Sim
icon for Abdul El-Sayed vencerá a primária democrata para o Senado de Michigan por menos de 5%?

Abdul El-Sayed vencerá a primária democrata para o Senado de Michigan por menos de 5%?

100%
Sim
icon for O candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para governador de Massachusetts em 2026 por uma margem de 25%-30%?

O candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para governador de Massachusetts em 2026 por uma margem de 25%-30%?

21%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Markey 40%+" at 44%, followed by "Moulton <5%" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts" is "Markey 40%+" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Moulton <5%" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Margem de Vitória da Primária do Senado Democrata de Massachusetts" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.