Recent official forecasts from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a typical late-summer Mediterranean pattern over Tel Aviv, with daytime highs near 31–32 °C and overnight radiative cooling limited by high sea-surface temperatures, moderate humidity, and light westerly sea breezes, producing expected minimums of 23–24 °C on August 25. This consensus aligns with the market’s clustering of implied probabilities around the 23 °C, 24 °C, and 25 °C bins while the elevated weighting on 28 °C or higher reflects trader caution over potential model revisions or localized urban-heat effects that could keep the overnight low warmer than climatological norms. August 2026 has run 1–2 °C above the long-term average so far, with recent recorded lows mostly 24–26 °C, reinforcing the view that any strengthening of the subtropical ridge or reduced cloud cover could push the minimum higher. Key upcoming catalysts include the next IMS bulletin and updated model runs within the next 24–48 hours, which will clarify whether steering patterns or boundary-layer moisture shift the overnight minimum.