**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate Ankara's overnight low on August 25 will likely range from 17–18 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, consistent with the city's continental climate and strong nocturnal radiative cooling.** Recent daily observations show highs near 33–35 °C moderating slightly, with dry air and minimal cloud cover favoring efficient heat loss after sunset. This setup positions the 15 °C-or-below bin at 45.5 % implied probability as traders weigh model spread and the potential for modest additional cooling if winds remain light. The 16 °C and 17 °C outcomes at 28 % and 27.5 % capture the tight clustering around current guidance, while the 25 °C-or-higher market at 29.5 % reflects residual uncertainty in daytime persistence or measurement timing. No major synoptic shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter the baseline.