Recent surges in Japan's 10-year JGB yield to a 30-year high near 3.03% reflect trader consensus around a 3.0%+ close for end-2026, with the 66.3% market-implied probability driven by accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated crude oil prices, a weak yen, and fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration— including tax cuts without clear funding—have lifted yields alongside U.S. Treasury moves above 5%. The BOJ's expected September rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening reinforce the higher-yield path, while global bond selloffs add upward momentum. Key near-term catalysts include this week's policy meeting and any updates on fiscal plans that could sustain the risk premium.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.6%
2.4-2.6% 7.4%
2.2-2.4% 4.5%
$29,258 Vol.
$29,258 Vol.
30 dez 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
5%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.6%
2.4-2.6% 7.4%
2.2-2.4% 4.5%
$29,258 Vol.
$29,258 Vol.
30 dez 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
5%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 Vol.
17%
3.0%+
$11,170 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent surges in Japan's 10-year JGB yield to a 30-year high near 3.03% reflect trader consensus around a 3.0%+ close for end-2026, with the 66.3% market-implied probability driven by accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated crude oil prices, a weak yen, and fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration— including tax cuts without clear funding—have lifted yields alongside U.S. Treasury moves above 5%. The BOJ's expected September rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening reinforce the higher-yield path, while global bond selloffs add upward momentum. Key near-term catalysts include this week's policy meeting and any updates on fiscal plans that could sustain the risk premium.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,258Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent surges in Japan's 10-year JGB yield to a 30-year high near 3.03% reflect trader consensus around a 3.0%+ close for end-2026, with the 66.3% market-implied probability driven by accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated crude oil prices, a weak yen, and fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration— including tax cuts without clear funding—have lifted yields alongside U.S. Treasury moves above 5%. The BOJ's expected September rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening reinforce the higher-yield path, while global bond selloffs add upward momentum. Key near-term catalysts include this week's policy meeting and any updates on fiscal plans that could sustain the risk premium.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,258Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent surges in Japan's 10-year JGB yield to a 30-year high near 3.03% reflect trader consensus around a 3.0%+ close for end-2026, with the 66.3% market-implied probability driven by accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated crude oil prices, a weak yen, and fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration— including tax cuts without clear funding—have lifted yields alongside U.S. Treasury moves above 5%. The BOJ's expected September rate hike to 1.25% and signals of further tightening reinforce the higher-yield path, while global bond selloffs add upward momentum. Key near-term catalysts include this week's policy meeting and any updates on fiscal plans that could sustain the risk premium.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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