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icon for A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?

A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?

icon for A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?

A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?

$355,380 Vol.

31 ago 2026
Polymarket

$355,380 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de agosto

$54,667 Vol.

1%

31 de outubro

$79,336 Vol.

8%

31 de dezembro

$28,052 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.IAEA access to Iran’s enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan remains restricted following the June 2025 strikes that damaged several of these sites. The agency has conducted limited inspections at unaffected locations since then but has not verified activities or material at the three main enrichment complexes, prompting repeated calls for inventory checks and design information verification, especially at Isfahan’s underground tunnels storing much of Iran’s higher-enriched uranium stockpile. In June 2026 the IAEA Board adopted a resolution urging cooperation, while Director General Grossi indicated that visits to the enrichment plants would occur under an interim U.S.-Iran understanding, though Iran has conditioned fuller access on a final agreement and modalities are still being negotiated. These diplomatic steps, alongside ongoing safeguards reporting deadlines, represent the principal near-term catalysts for any market movement on inspection timing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$355,380
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.IAEA access to Iran’s enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan remains restricted following the June 2025 strikes that damaged several of these sites. The agency has conducted limited inspections at unaffected locations since then but has not verified activities or material at the three main enrichment complexes, prompting repeated calls for inventory checks and design information verification, especially at Isfahan’s underground tunnels storing much of Iran’s higher-enriched uranium stockpile. In June 2026 the IAEA Board adopted a resolution urging cooperation, while Director General Grossi indicated that visits to the enrichment plants would occur under an interim U.S.-Iran understanding, though Iran has conditioned fuller access on a final agreement and modalities are still being negotiated. These diplomatic steps, alongside ongoing safeguards reporting deadlines, represent the principal near-term catalysts for any market movement on inspection timing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$355,380
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 22%, followed by "31 de outubro" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?" has generated $355.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de outubro" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A AIEA visita as instalações nucleares de Isfahan, Fordow ou Natanz até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.