How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?

2–3 69%

4–5 33%

0–1 1.3%

6–7 <1%

$15,261 Vol.

4 ago 2026

0–1

$4,341 Vol.

2–3

$4,649 Vol.

69%

4–5

$2,023 Vol.

33%

6–7

$2,280 Vol.

<1%

8–9

$406 Vol.

<1%

10+

$1,563 Vol.

<1%

2–3 69%

4–5 33%

0–1 1.3%

6–7 <1%

$15,261 Vol.

4 ago 2026

0–1

$4,341 Vol.

2–3

$4,649 Vol.

69%

4–5

$2,023 Vol.

33%

6–7

$2,280 Vol.

<1%

8–9

$406 Vol.

<1%

10+

$1,563 Vol.

<1%

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed. This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant. The candidates and races are: Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10). The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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"How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2–3" at 69%, followed by "4–5" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

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The current frontrunner for "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" is "2–3" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4–5" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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The "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 4, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

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How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?

How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?

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