Recent cabinet turnover under President Trump, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation earlier in 2026, has established a pattern of elevated departures that continues to shape trader views on additional exits before year-end. Ongoing Senate confirmations for replacements such as Todd Blanche as attorney general and Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence reflect the administration's efforts to stabilize key posts amid broader Senate-confirmed official churn exceeding prior terms. With midterm elections approaching and historical precedent for second-term reshuffles, traders weigh whether performance reviews, policy alignments, or external pressures will prompt one or several further changes versus a slowdown in the final months. The fragmented probabilities across one to five departures highlight uncertainty over the pace of any remaining adjustments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1 28%
4 21.8%
5 20.1%
2 19.2%
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
0
6%
1
34%
2
19%
3
15%
4
22%
5
20%
6
2%
7+
12%
1 28%
4 21.8%
5 20.1%
2 19.2%
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
0
$4,948 Vol.
6%
1
$589 Vol.
34%
2
$425 Vol.
19%
3
$261 Vol.
15%
4
$321 Vol.
22%
5
$358 Vol.
20%
6
$393 Vol.
2%
7+
$1,868 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent cabinet turnover under President Trump, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation earlier in 2026, has established a pattern of elevated departures that continues to shape trader views on additional exits before year-end. Ongoing Senate confirmations for replacements such as Todd Blanche as attorney general and Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence reflect the administration's efforts to stabilize key posts amid broader Senate-confirmed official churn exceeding prior terms. With midterm elections approaching and historical precedent for second-term reshuffles, traders weigh whether performance reviews, policy alignments, or external pressures will prompt one or several further changes versus a slowdown in the final months. The fragmented probabilities across one to five departures highlight uncertainty over the pace of any remaining adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,163Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent cabinet turnover under President Trump, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation earlier in 2026, has established a pattern of elevated departures that continues to shape trader views on additional exits before year-end. Ongoing Senate confirmations for replacements such as Todd Blanche as attorney general and Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence reflect the administration's efforts to stabilize key posts amid broader Senate-confirmed official churn exceeding prior terms. With midterm elections approaching and historical precedent for second-term reshuffles, traders weigh whether performance reviews, policy alignments, or external pressures will prompt one or several further changes versus a slowdown in the final months. The fragmented probabilities across one to five departures highlight uncertainty over the pace of any remaining adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Volume
$9,163Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover under President Trump, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation earlier in 2026, has established a pattern of elevated departures that continues to shape trader views on additional exits before year-end. Ongoing Senate confirmations for replacements such as Todd Blanche as attorney general and Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence reflect the administration's efforts to stabilize key posts amid broader Senate-confirmed official churn exceeding prior terms. With midterm elections approaching and historical precedent for second-term reshuffles, traders weigh whether performance reviews, policy alignments, or external pressures will prompt one or several further changes versus a slowdown in the final months. The fragmented probabilities across one to five departures highlight uncertainty over the pace of any remaining adjustments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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