South Carolina's seven congressional districts remain under the existing map after Republican-led efforts at mid-decade redistricting failed to advance in the state Senate in May 2026. This preserves the single Democratic-held seat while leaving the other six under firm Republican control, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited competitiveness ratings from forecasters. Open seats resulting from retirements in Districts 1 and 5 introduce some uncertainty, as do broader 2026 midterm dynamics that could influence turnout and candidate recruitment. Traders assign closely matched probabilities across one or two Democratic wins because national conditions, primary outcomes from June, and any late shifts in candidate positioning or fundraising could determine whether Democrats hold their current seat or expand to a second district.