Latest short-range model runs and AEMET guidance indicate Madrid will remain under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 1, favoring a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C at the official Retiro station. Ensemble spread and subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak solar insolation, and urban heat-island effects create the tight contest between the 34 °C and 35 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in AEMET’s August–September outlook reinforce the warm bias, while the absence of frontal passages or significant cloud cover through the 48-hour window limits downside risk to the lower bins. Updated deterministic and ensemble forecasts issued in the final 24 hours before resolution will be the key catalysts for any last shifts in trader positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 1 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 1 de setembro?
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
8%
34°C
41%
35°C
46%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
30°C or below
$89 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C
$103 Vol.
41%
35°C
$307 Vol.
46%
36°C
$7 Vol.
6%
37°C
$4 Vol.
2%
38°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range model runs and AEMET guidance indicate Madrid will remain under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 1, favoring a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C at the official Retiro station. Ensemble spread and subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak solar insolation, and urban heat-island effects create the tight contest between the 34 °C and 35 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in AEMET’s August–September outlook reinforce the warm bias, while the absence of frontal passages or significant cloud cover through the 48-hour window limits downside risk to the lower bins. Updated deterministic and ensemble forecasts issued in the final 24 hours before resolution will be the key catalysts for any last shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$525Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range model runs and AEMET guidance indicate Madrid will remain under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 1, favoring a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C at the official Retiro station. Ensemble spread and subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak solar insolation, and urban heat-island effects create the tight contest between the 34 °C and 35 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in AEMET’s August–September outlook reinforce the warm bias, while the absence of frontal passages or significant cloud cover through the 48-hour window limits downside risk to the lower bins. Updated deterministic and ensemble forecasts issued in the final 24 hours before resolution will be the key catalysts for any last shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$525Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range model runs and AEMET guidance indicate Madrid will remain under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 1, favoring a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C at the official Retiro station. Ensemble spread and subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak solar insolation, and urban heat-island effects create the tight contest between the 34 °C and 35 °C outcomes that together exceed 85 % implied probability. Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in AEMET’s August–September outlook reinforce the warm bias, while the absence of frontal passages or significant cloud cover through the 48-hour window limits downside risk to the lower bins. Updated deterministic and ensemble forecasts issued in the final 24 hours before resolution will be the key catalysts for any last shifts in trader positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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