Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts for London on August 5 indicate a maximum of 25°C under sunny intervals and a moderate westerly breeze, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% probability for that outcome. Ensemble models show limited spread, with 24–26°C remaining plausible depending on the precise timing of any high-cloud increase or localized sea-breeze effects. Above-average high pressure has maintained warm, dry conditions across southern England, pushing daytime maxima several degrees above the long-term August mean of 22–23°C, yet no heatwave setup appears likely to push readings to 27°C or higher. Updated model runs and official guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will determine whether the implied probability shifts toward 24°C or 26°C.