**Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS model runs indicate a sunny, high-pressure regime over central Texas on September 19, supporting afternoon highs in the upper 90s under clear skies and light southeasterly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime radiative heating with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, pushing temperatures above the late-September climatological average of roughly 90°F. Dew points in the mid-60s to low-70s will limit extreme heat indices while still allowing peaks near 97–99°F at official sites like Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom. The near-even split between the 96–97°F and 98–99°F market bins reflects small inter-model differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with only modest probabilities assigned to 100°F+ outcomes if heating exceeds current consensus. Traders are weighting the most recent official point forecasts showing 99°F as the base case while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty range typical for a one-day horizon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Austin em 19 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Austin em 19 de setembro?
98-99°F 46%
96-97°F 43%
94-95°F 7%
100-101°F 6%
NOVO
NOVO
19 set 2026
87°F ou menos
<1%
88-89°F
1%
32-32,8°C
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
43%
98-99°F
46%
100-101°F
6%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
1%
106°F ou mais
<1%
98-99°F 46%
96-97°F 43%
94-95°F 7%
100-101°F 6%
NOVO
NOVO
19 set 2026
87°F ou menos
$111 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
1%
32-32,8°C
$90 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$180 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$177 Vol.
7%
96-97°F
$273 Vol.
43%
98-99°F
$339 Vol.
46%
100-101°F
$418 Vol.
6%
102-103°F
$77 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$149 Vol.
1%
106°F ou mais
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS model runs indicate a sunny, high-pressure regime over central Texas on September 19, supporting afternoon highs in the upper 90s under clear skies and light southeasterly flow.**
This setup favors strong daytime radiative heating with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, pushing temperatures above the late-September climatological average of roughly 90°F. Dew points in the mid-60s to low-70s will limit extreme heat indices while still allowing peaks near 97–99°F at official sites like Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom. The near-even split between the 96–97°F and 98–99°F market bins reflects small inter-model differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with only modest probabilities assigned to 100°F+ outcomes if heating exceeds current consensus. Traders are weighting the most recent official point forecasts showing 99°F as the base case while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty range typical for a one-day horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 17, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,846Data de Término
19 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 2:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS model runs indicate a sunny, high-pressure regime over central Texas on September 19, supporting afternoon highs in the upper 90s under clear skies and light southeasterly flow.**
This setup favors strong daytime radiative heating with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, pushing temperatures above the late-September climatological average of roughly 90°F. Dew points in the mid-60s to low-70s will limit extreme heat indices while still allowing peaks near 97–99°F at official sites like Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom. The near-even split between the 96–97°F and 98–99°F market bins reflects small inter-model differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with only modest probabilities assigned to 100°F+ outcomes if heating exceeds current consensus. Traders are weighting the most recent official point forecasts showing 99°F as the base case while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty range typical for a one-day horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,846Data de Término
19 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 2:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS model runs indicate a sunny, high-pressure regime over central Texas on September 19, supporting afternoon highs in the upper 90s under clear skies and light southeasterly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime radiative heating with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, pushing temperatures above the late-September climatological average of roughly 90°F. Dew points in the mid-60s to low-70s will limit extreme heat indices while still allowing peaks near 97–99°F at official sites like Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom. The near-even split between the 96–97°F and 98–99°F market bins reflects small inter-model differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with only modest probabilities assigned to 100°F+ outcomes if heating exceeds current consensus. Traders are weighting the most recent official point forecasts showing 99°F as the base case while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty range typical for a one-day horizon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions